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Expert Bio
Thomas E. Graham is a distinguished fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. He is a cofounder of the Russian, East European, and Eurasian studies program at Yale University and sits on its faculty steering committee. He is also a research fellow at the MacMillan Center at Yale. He has been a lecturer in global affairs and political science since 2011, teaching courses on U.S.-Russian relations and Russian foreign policy, as well as cybersecurity and counterterrorism. Graham was special assistant to the president and senior director for Russia on the National Security Council staff from 2004 to 2007, during which he managed a White House-Kremlin strategic dialogue. He was director for Russian affairs on the staff from 2002 to 2004.
Graham served as an advisor to Kissinger Associates from 2008 to 2021. He was a Foreign Service officer for fourteen years. His assignments included two tours of duty at the U.S. Embassy in Moscow in the late Soviet period and in the middle of the 1990’s during which he served as head of the political internal unit and acting political counselor. Between tours in Moscow, he worked on Russian and Soviet affairs on the policy planning staff at the U.S. Department of State and as a policy assistant in the office of the undersecretary of defense for policy.
Graham serves on the Kennan council of the Kennan Institute of the Wilson Center and on the advisory board of Russia Matters, a project of the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs with the goal of enhancing the understanding of Russia among policymakers and the interested public. He also serves on the editorial board of the US-Canada Journal of the USA-Canada Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
Graham holds a BA in Russian studies from Yale University and an MA in history and a PhD in political science from Harvard University.
Affiliations:
- Harvard University, Kennedy School of Government, Belfer Center, Russia Matters, advisory board, member
- Supporters of Civil Society in Russia, advisory board, member
- TEGraham Consultants, LLC
- U.S.-Canada Institute, USA-Canada: Economics, Politics, Culture Journal, editorial board, member
- Wilson Center, Kennan Institute, Kennan council, member
- Yale University, Russia, East European, and Eurasian Studies program, steering committee, member
- Yale University, MacMillan Center, research fellow
Current Projects
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The challenge to Russia’s military and leadership from the mercenary Wagner Group marks a setback to Putin’s stature and possibly the Ukraine war effort.
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The meeting of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Moscow helped both give the impression of a united front, but underlying tensions were also discernible.
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Ukraine has withstood and repelled the mighty Russian military through Western support, Russian blundering, and its own resourcefulness. However, the circumstances could be changing.
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Russia’s moves to mobilize thousands more troops and to annex more of Ukraine’s territory signal a new, potentially more dangerous phase of the war.
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Mikhail Gorbachev will be remembered in the West for laying the basis for more constructive relations to ease the end of the Cold War, but vilified in Russia for speeding the Soviet Union’s demise.
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NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization)
The Madrid summit paved the way for Finland and Sweden to join and underscored that Russia is NATO’s chief security threat. But the alliance’s new defensive efforts aren’t likely to change Putin’s strategy in Ukraine. -
To prevent Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine from escalating into a wider European conflict, Thomas Graham recommends that the United States bolster its deterrence efforts with NATO partners, while leaving the door open for Russia to de-escalate.
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President Putin’s deployment of troops in two separatist Ukrainian regions has nearly shut the door on diplomacy and intensified a showdown over European security.
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Russia has demanded security guarantees that U.S. and NATO officials cannot accept, but there could still be room for building a sustainable dialogue on European security.
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